WataugaWatch

Roger Simon this a.m. revisits the campaign of 2008 to remind us of what candidate Hillary Clinton said about candidate Barack Obama: "Clinton warned voters that Obama would let them down. She warned them that when the going got tough, he would fold up."

Ouch.

Simon wields that memory because as of this past weekend, the prez appeared to be giving up on the public option for health insurance. The public option would create competition for the insurance companies, not socialism (which is what the over 65 crowd already has with its Medicare coverage, but don't try to tell them that. They've got theirs, which apparently was delivered by Jahweh to Moses on Mt. Horeb, and they don't give a living flip if you get yours).

Simon leaves the door ajar a crack for a transformed Obama to come charging back into the fray: "We don't know for sure that Obama is about to give up on the public option. I think, in the end, he will not. I think he may be tougher than some think and stronger than the polls show. But I admit there are troubling signs."

Perhaps the House Progressive Caucus can help the prez find those misplaced testicles. Some 60 members of the House say no way are Sen. Max Baucus and the likes of Rep. Heath Shuler the dictators of Democratic policy.

Progressive Dems, stick to your guns.

Labels: Barack Obama, health care, Heath Shuler, Hillary Clinton, Max Baucus, Roger Simon

Let's see now. Palin was announced officially during the noon hour, and now there's already merchandise available commemorating "McSame & Failin'" ... hats, tote bags, coffee cups. (HT: MW)

Ain't free enterprise wonderful!

In other news, we learn from GOP battlebots that Palin/Failin' is a BRILLIANT choice, 'cause she'll induce former Hillary supporters to forget all about the reasons they supported Hillary and cause them to vote for McCain/McSame. Well, yes, IF they become zombies, or if somebody slips enough of them a good dose of roofies on votin' day. Then, by all means, stand by for a stampede among Hillary women for the McCain ticket.

We can certainly agree with Shyster (posting on another site somewhere in Right Blogistan) that at least Palin is a LOT hotter'n Biden. In those glasses (see down-column) she reminds us a little of an x-rated movie character from "Midnight Librarian."

Labels: Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Sarah Palin

Failed Republican presidential nominee Mike Huckabee told North Carolina Republicans at their state convention yesterday that they need to recognize the historic accomplishment of Barack Obama and to steer around any urge to "demonize" him. That would seriously misfire, Huckabee warned them. (Much more detail on Huckabee's speech here.)

I know a Republican woman who worked tirelessly for Ronald Reagan in the NC primary of 1976, who voted for Huckabee in the primary this year, and who now says she'll vote for Barack Obama, "unless he picks Hillary Clinton for vice president. Or Jim Webb."

Going from Huckabee to Obama might not make any sense to you, and I won't even try to explain that straddle ('cause I wouldn't exactly know where to start, either), but I'm impressed by her new outspoken passion for Obama (without entirely understanding it). She's going on 80 years old and hasn't voted for a Democrat in decades. She told us that she watched Obama's victory speech last Tuesday night and stood up out of bed and applauded when he finished ... all by herself in an empty house.

An in-law of hers has been e-mailing her the Obama-is-a-secret-Muslim-agent messages, and she's asked that the forwarding stop. "It's all lies, and I don't appreciate lying."

She's exactly what the Republican Party has worried about all along with Obama as the presidential nominee ... that he is going to be attractive to a wide (and surprising) range of registered Republicans. (Unless, of course, he chooses Hillary or Jim Webb as his running mate.)

Labels: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Mike Huckabee

The endorsement, strong and unequivocal. Video here (and a lot of other places too), with discussion, etc.

Barack signals that North Carolina is in play by coming back to the state this coming Monday to an invitation-only event at the State Fair grounds in Raleigh.

Gettin' it on!

Labels: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton

This post on Under the Dome goes a long way toward explaining the Diane Hamby numbers in the NC-5 Democratic congressional primary yesterday.

1. Hillary Clinton drew many women to the polls yesterday who had medium to low information about any other races on the Democratic ballot.

2. Many of those women went through the ballot marking the candidates who could be identified by gender.

3. Dome finds the drop-off in votes in state-wide races where no woman was running highly significant.

Labels: Diane Hamby, gender in the North Carolina Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton

That's little ole Watauga County (and Buncombe further south) colored Obama purple, floating in that wash of Clinton pink (or is it salmon?).

Thought you might get a kick out of seeing what a sore thumb Watauga is.

Labels: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Watauga County; Buncombe County

Say it once and don't say it again: it was a very big night for the Barack Obama campaign, a disastrous night for Hillary. And can we put aside the supposed black/white gulf, when lily-white Watauga County went for Obama by a greater percentage than the rest of the state? This despite the stumping of Bubba through our neck of the woods. Buncombe County, which hosted visits by all three Clintons, went for Obama by over 54%. So much for the "Clinton magic" in western North Carolina (and in rural America generally).

Other Big Winners
Walter Dalton, who won outright in a four-way race for the Democratic nomination for Lt. Gov. Just about everyone was predicting a run-off.

Pat McCrory, who won outright in the Republican primary for NC Gov. Beverly Perdue has now a far tougher row to hoe.

The 40+ NC mayors, including Boone's own Loretta Clawson, who endorsed Barack Obama.

Losers
Republican Appeals Court Judge John Tyson, who was knocked out in this primary by two Democratic candidates, who will now have to face each other in November: Kristin Ruth and the grandson of Sen. Sam Ervin.

Poor Fred Smith, whom we were rooting for, who proved (once again?) that free barbecue can't compete with expensive political consultants.

Congressman Patrick McHenry, who though he beat back the challenge from fellow Republican Lance Sigmon, appears to be damaged goods and must now face a gen-you-wine military hero in Democrat Daniel Johnson come November. Sigmon said prior to yesterday that he would never endorse McHenry.

Jerry Butler. What's the deal with Jerry Butler? Why did his home county of Watauga not vote for him in his win in the Republican primary for the NC-45 state senate race? Inquiring minds want to know what the home-town Republican voters were thinking.

Big Losers
Linda Daves and the North Carolina GOP. Their big negative ad against Obama -- the "eeek, a scary black man" TV spot -- did not work in a state where it might predictably have had some effect. Not only have the state Republicans looked craven and desperate to a national audience; they've also effectively slammed the door on reaching out to under-30 voters, who (1) can't countenance the theatrical incompetence of the Bush administration and (2) have apparently grown more mature than their tiresomely racist elders in the South.

Labels: Barack Obama, Beverly Perdue, Daniel Johnson, Fred Smith, Hillary Clinton, John Tyson, Kristin Ruth, Lance Sigmon, Loretta Clawson, Pat McCrory, Patrick McHenry, Sam Ervin IV, Walter Dalton

On the Democratic side, Obama won his match-up with Clinton in early voting, where some 3,185 votes were cast (including mail-in absentees), 1,974 of those for Obama to 1,174 for Clinton. That winning margin for Obama could not be overcome in precinct voting today, even though 11 of 20 precincts today went for Clinton.

Generally speaking, Clinton was strongest in the more rural parts of the county but not everywhere. For example, Elk and North Fork tipped to Obama. Watauga precinct (Foscoe and Valle Crucis) went for Obama. The three Boone precincts and New River 1 went for Obama. Blowing Rock and Blue Ridge turned in dead-even ties between Clinton and Obama.

Fifth Dist. congressional candidate Roy Carter carried Watauga by some 1,300 votes but appears to be slightly behind Diane Hamby district-wide (as of this writing).

U.S. senatorial candidate Jim Neal had an impressive showing in Watauga (2,291 votes), though he lost to Kay Hagan by a thousand votes in the county and to Hagan state-wide by a huge margin. Watauga was probably one of his best counties, perhaps because he made two visits here prior to the voting.

Likewise, Dan Besse came in second to Walter Dalton in Watauga. Good showing for Besse here, while he was losing the rest of the state.

On the Republican side, the most astounding local numbers were local dentist Jerry Butler's loss of his own county to Alexander Co. resident Dwight Shook in the State Senate Dist. 45 primary. Shades of Virginia Foxx! Butler can't carry his own county but wins the district and will be facing incumbent Senator Steve Goss this fall.

Oh, and Ron Paul didn't win the Republican presidential primary, though with 367 Watauga votes, he did out-poll "No Preference."

A total of 2,660 Republican ballots were cast, to 7,081 Democratic ballots. That may turn out to be the most significant bellwether of the night.

Labels: Barack Obama, Dan Besse, Dwight Shook, Hillary Clinton, Jerry Butler, Jim Neal, Ron Paul, Roy Carter, Virginia Foxx, Walter Dalton, Watauga County primary voting

Final numbers for Watauga:

Clinton 3,645
Obama 4,570

Labels: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton

Word from several Watauga County precincts this a.m. says that the Republicans are AWOL. No poll-greeters spotted for any Republican candidates, not even Paularoids (though, clearly, from the count of yard signs alone, Ron Paul is in the lead for the Republican presidential nomination. Apparently, true Paularoids are expecting a Big Uprising at the Republican National Convention this summer that will reject John McCain and sweep Ron Paul into the nomination. BTW, we want whatever it is they're smoking).

The most active Democratic campaigns locally -- from an unscientific count of poll-greeters working key precincts this morning -- would be the Bev Perdue campaign, Team Roy Carter, the Tim Futrelle committee, and both the Clinton and the Obama campaigns.

Turn-out has been steady though not in the overwhelming numbers we've seen reported from other parts of the state.

Labels: Barack Obama, Beverly Perdue, Hillary Clinton, Ron Paul, Roy Carter, Tim Futrelle, Watauga County primary voting

Dr. Stephen Gheen, an editor at The Political Junkies and an avowed Hillary Clinton supporter, has sent out an e-mail analyzing voter turn-out in North Carolina's early-voting period (sorry, no link). He says Obama is winning the early vote by 57% to Hillary's 43%.

Analyzing hard data supplied by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, Gheen reports that some 333,000+ North Carolina voters cast votes in early voting through last Saturday at 1 p.m. Get this: some 63% of all votes cast in early voting were cast by women; 44% of early voters were black, a performance that runs 10% higher than normal.

Gheen's prediction that Obama wins North Carolina easily is based on the following assumptions:

1. Obama receives 90% of all Black votes

2. The small block of Asian voters breaks 60% to Clinton

3. American Indian/Native Alaskans break for Clinton with 55%

4. Clinton receives 70% of all White voters

5. Undesignated voters break 55% to Clinton

We're not sure what Gheen means by "Undesignated voters." Apparently, he is not referring to Unaffiliated voters, because later in his e-mail he says:

The analysis above includes ONLY Democrats early voting. The composition does not include Unaffiliated voters who may choose to vote in the Democratic Primary in NC. Some 61,000 Unaffiliated voters requested a ballot for the Democratic Primary. Sen. Obama has generally performed better with Unaffiliated voters across the US than Sen. Clinton.

Despite whether his crystal ball is clouded or not, Gheen's numbers and projections make for interesting eve-of-the-primary reading.

Labels: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton

"If it goes all the way to Denver, I don't think it would be bad for the party."

- Gov. Mike Easley, on CNN's "Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer" (quoted in Under the Dome -- scroll to the bottom)

Spoken like a man who endorsed the woman who apparently intends to restage The Siege of Corinth, with plenty of blood.

Labels: Hillary Clinton, Mike Easley