WataugaWatch

According to the Swing State Project (via PPP), in the last election only 23 Republican members of the House did worse than John McCain within their own districts. Two of those 23 were Virginia Foxx (NC-5) and Patrick McHenry (NC-10). McHenry's performance relative to the party's presidential nominee was the sixth worst of any member of the GOP caucus.

Tom Jensen at PPP has remarked before that these statistics suggest just how strong Roy Carter and Daniel Johnson were as challengers to Foxx and McHenry, even though they lost. Jensen also opines that the NC-5 and NC-10 are "completely unwinnable" for Dems, based on the "current configuration" of those districts.

Labels: Daniel Johnson, Patrick McHenry, Roy Carter, Tom Jensen, Virginia Foxx

Good profile article on Rev. Ryan Eller in today's W-S Journal. Ryan took over on Dec. 15 as head of CHANGE in Forsyth County. Don't tell Sarah Palin, but Ryan is a ... community organizer.

He's also another graduate of Appalachian State University, a student leader during his time in Boone, and most recently, he managed Roy Carter's campaign against The Madam.

We're blessed to have him in the NC-5 for the long-haul.

Labels: CHANGE, Roy Carter, Ryan Eller

Although Roy Carter carried Watauga County against the incumbent Republican congresswoman by 2,000 votes, exactly doubling the number by which she lost this county in 2006, he was swamped in all the other ten counties. Foxx's lowest percentage of the vote in all but Watauga was the 54.71% she drew in Ashe, but, here, see for yourself:

Watauga

Carter 14,727 (53.69%)
Foxx 12,702 (46.31%)

Ashe

Carter 5,944 (45.29%)
Foxx 7,180 (54.71%)

Wilkes

Carter 11,194 (38.05%)
Foxx 18,223 (61.95%)

Alexander

Carter 5,934 (34.96%)
Foxx 11,042 (65.04%)

Alleghany

Carter 2,264 (42.85%)
Foxx 3,019 (57.15%)

Surry

11,491 (39.52%)
17,583 (60.48%)

Yadkin

Carter 5,324 (31.49%)
Foxx 11,584 (68.51%)

Stokes

Carter 7,810 (36.23%)
Foxx 13,749 (63.77%)

Forsyth

Carter 48,123 (45.10%)
Foxx 58,589 (54.90%)

Davie

Carter 6,394 (32.13%)
Foxx 13,508 (67.87%)

Iredell

Carter 14,612 (43.67%)
Foxx 18,851 (56.33%)

Rockingham

Carter 879 (28.16%)
Foxx 2,243 (71.84%)

What can you say about numbers like that? Well, actually, a couple of things:

1. One can certainly tell the counties where there's Democratic Party organization (even vestigial efforts): Ashe, Wilkes, Alleghany, Surry, Forsyth, Iredell. And the counties where there's nothing much going on. For a Democrat to be successful in the 5th district, someone is going to have to organize those counties. It's not impossible. A core group of even a dozen people in each county, if they're dedicated to the effort, could move those mountains. Overcoming defeatism would be a fundamental first step (maybe try drugs?).

2. Unless we're willing to accept The Madam for life (and we hear she's not scheduled for the sod until approximately 2050), then we need to recognize that a presidential year is the worst possible time to retire her. That's not what some of us thought going into 2008. We foresaw a Democrat (any Democrat) winning the White House, but we underestimated the relentless, robotic march of the Republicans in all counties listed above save one. When the presidency is at stake, you can forget moving the 5th District, even if every Republican is hitching rides to the polls from the County Poorhouse.

3. That makes 2010 look all the more interesting, if # 1 above could also be achieved.

4. Money. The Carter campaign was always cash-strapped, and it proved that even without resources it could get a shudder out of the incumbent by simply publicizing her record, which is largely unknown in the 5th Dist. and hugely debilitating to the well being of its citizens.

5. Foxx will not change. She hates the people who oppose her and will not reach out to them. Witness her complete absence from any venue where ordinary citizens might ask her an unwelcome question. That is her greatest weakness. That and her hard-hearted conservatism in a changing environment where excessive partisanship is going to seem increasingly unattractive.

Labels: 2008 election results, Roy Carter, Virginia Foxx

Summer Lipford, the dead Iraq War soldier's mother featured in the Roy Carter campaign ad, has posted her response to Virginia Foxx on the W-S Journal article in which Foxx lied about being responsive to Lipford's pleas for help. Lipford's post:

Posted by (SummerLipford) on 10/30/2008 at 02:50 am.

I am pleased Roy Carter's campaign is not pulling the ad concerning Foxx's total disregard concerning the death of my son. There is nothing that can be done to correct what Foxx did or did not do for my family when Steven died, I cannot attend his Memorial Service at Ft Benning, due to the fact I was not considered his family because he had married before deployment to Iraq, which Foxx would have been aware of had she contacted my family when Steven died, I cannot forget the hurt that Steven was left on the belly of a plane for 5 hours,until after dark, because this administration was ashamed to allow flag draped caskets to be seen by the American people, that 30 minutes before his funeral I was told I may need pall bearers because the casualty officer was not sure the Honor Guard would be there on time to carry my son to his grave, that no government official, local or otherwise attended Stevens funeral or sent a representative or even contacted me, that I was lied to about the circumstances Steven died under and had to force the military myself to get a different version, not the truth, concerning his death.........and so many other hurtful things, far too many to mention, all could have been prevented by Foxx's intervention if only she had a staffer from her office contact me. Contacting me 10 weeks after his funeral with a form letter of condolence does not constitute her assistance, assistance not that I asked for, but begged for. I am not malicious, disgusting or dishonest, I had nothing to gain by telling my story, I am a mother who grieves everyday for my child and prays no other mother has to walk my path, no other mother has to live with the lack of concern and disrespect shown to my son and myself by Virginia Foxx As I have stated, none of this can change for me, but by electing Roy Carter I know it will not happen again.

Summer Lipford

This was the lead story last night on WXII News, something few voters in Watauga would have seen since Charter chose to delete Channel 12 from its line-up months (years?) ago.

Labels: Roy Carter, Summer Lipford, Virginia Foxx

"My family and I have given this election a lot of thought," writes Junior in an e-mail received this a.m. He goes on:

Our country is in a rough spot, and we're going to need some serious change. There's only one candidate ready to deliver it -- and that's Barack Obama.

Every day I talk to someone else who's never voted for a Democrat, but now they're voting for Barack Obama. They realize that Barack understands what we're going through here in North Carolina. And they're ready for change.

So I've made up my mind, and I'm ready to get involved. I know that I could never have won a race without my pit crew, and I know Barack can't win this one without us.

When I talk to folks about why I support Barack, I just tell it like I see it.

There's been a lot thrown at him this election, and he's stayed calm, positive, and focused. I know a little something about how important it is to stay cool under pressure....

It goes on, but that's the gist. Extraordinary year that gets Junior Johnson out so publicly endorsing, first, Roy Carter for Congress and then Barack Obama for the White House.

Labels: Barack Obama, Junior Johnson, Roy Carter

"All the signs of another big 'wave' election are apparent, and our current outlook is a gain of 23 to 28 seats for House Democrats," says a Congressional update on the non-partisan Cook Political Report. Among those Republican House members downgraded from "Solid Republican" to "Lean Republican" is Virginia Foxx's 5th Dist. seat.

What's the big deal, you ask? Cook measures movement. And the movement is currently very much against Foxx.

Dig deep, folks, and show Roy Carter some love.

Labels: Roy Carter, Virginia Foxx

When last seen together, Rep. Virginia Foxx and Rep. Michelle Bachmann were arm-wrestling over who got to tongue George W. Bush (yes, that's Michelle Bachmann in the white, trying to elbow Foxx out of the way). Bachmann went on to her 15 minutes of unfortunate notoriety last Friday on Hard Ball, calling for the investigation of Democrats in Congress as unAmerican.

Virginia Foxx does not intend for Michelle Bachmann to outdo her on the labeling of Democrats at anti-American ... as documented in this Congressional Quarterly article. Foxx has just so far avoided any high-profile venue for her spewings.

But spewings they are.

Roy Carter needs our help.

Labels: Michelle Bachmann, Roy Carter, Virginia Foxx

We saw this very effective video yesterday: "A Goldstar Mom, Ignored by Virginia Foxx." Best political spot we've seen in a long time, especially one aimed at The Madam.

Swing State Project reports that new polling shows Coach Roy Carter pulling ahead of Foxx in Surry and Allegheny counties.

Why won't the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee take some notice of Carter and the valiant race he's run against The Madam?

Labels: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Roy Carter, Virginia Foxx

Fifth Dist. Congresswoman Virginia Foxx released her full "debate schedule." One is a whole hour at an Ashe County middle school during the middle of the day, and the second is for 30 minutes on Triad Today hosted by her buddy, conservative columnist Jim Longworth.

One very obvious thing wrong with this schedule of severe heavy-lifting: neither venue will allow any questions from regular citizens, and they are obviously designed to be anything BUT debates. One not so obvious thing wrong: Foxx released this schedule without bothering to seek and receive the cooperation of her opponent, Coach Roy Carter. According to Carter campaign manager Ryan Eller, the Foxx people have NEVER contacted the Carter campaign about these so-called "debates."

Carter counter-proposed a series of town-hall meetings across the district, wrote a letter to Foxx inviting her to participate in any or all of them, and hand-delivered the letter to Foxx's Boone office on Thursday.

Foxx's aide Todd Poole answered Carter's proposal in a pouting letter, saying that a member of Congress has just too many important obligations to show up (where regular citizens might ask her questions). Ryan Eller countered that since Congress is in recess, Foxx ought to be freed up sufficiently to demonstrate the barest commitment to an open discusssion of issues and her voting record.

Foxx deserves a lesson in democracy. And maybe she thinks it's coming, considering the way she's now raising money. She told one woman who is now supporting Carter, "I'm really scared. My polling is telling me that this election is going to be close, and I need all of the last minute help I can get."

Poor-mouthing, a Virginia Foxx speciality.

Labels: Roy Carter, Ryan Eller, Todd Poole, Virginia Foxx

Asked yesterday, Are you worried that the markets are now tanking, after you voted against the financial rescue bill? Madam Virginia Foxx replied:

"No, I'm not. The market may be down, but the Constitution is up!"

Whatever that means.

Such blissful assurance from The Madam! No agonizing, no second-guessing, no visible nervousness, no discernible concern about the lives and finances of her constituents.

Said Ben Salt, spokesman for Roy Carter, the Madam's opponent in this election, "Foxx's blind belief in an unregulated, greed-is-good ideology that leaves no constructive role for government, combined with campaign contributions from the subprime mortgage industry, have seriously affected her judgment."

For specific instances of that (lack of) judgment at work, try these:

Foxx voted NO on HR 3915, "The Mortgage Reform and Anti-Predatory Lending Act," which would have established licensing and registration requirements for residential mortgage originators and would have provided certain minimum standards for consumer mortgage loans. The bill passed the House with bipartisan support 291-127. (Roll Call 1118, Nov. 15, 2007)

Foxx voted NO on HR 1252, the "Federal Gas Price Gouging Prevention Act," which also passed the House with bipartisan support 284-141. (Roll Call 404, May 23, 2007)

More recently, Foxx voted against HR 6853, a bill to establish the FBI's nationwide mortgage fraud coordinator and to address mortgage fraud. The bill passed with overwhelming bipartisan support 350-23. (Roll Call 618, Sept. 22, 2008)

Foxx, true to her species, has usually voted to protect the predators.

Labels: Roy Carter, Virginia Foxx

On May 23, 2007, Virginia Foxx voted NO on HR 1252, The Federal Price Gouging Prevention Act. The bi-partisan bill passed the House by an overwhelming margin, 284-141. All seven Democrats in the North Carolina delegation voted for the bill, as did three Republicans, including 6th District Representative Howard Coble. Virginia Foxx voted AGAINST a federal law that would protect motorists from being fleeced at the pump.

That becomes more than pertinent today as station owners across the 5th Congressional Dist. jacked up prices AHEAD OF an expected shortage caused by hurricane Ike.

Foxx's challenger Roy Carter issued a press statement this p.m.:

"My opponent has spent weeks in Washington clamoring for more attention on drilling, instead of coming back to the district for constituent services like the other members of Congress," said Carter. "But when given a choice between defending the interests of the average citizen versus the interests of the oil companies, Foxx votes with Big Oil every single time."

She knows who butters her ample slice of bread!

Labels: oil industry, Roy Carter, Virginia Foxx

She must be scared. She just called Roy Carter "a radical environmentalist" in an "urgent" fundraising e-mail message.

Like anybody is gonna believe that kind of hysterical labeling.

Those who live in glass houses might beware of throwing these particular stones. The Madam's current ratings from some relevant environmental orgs.:

League of Conservation Voters rates her at 10%

Republicans for Environmental Protection rates her at 7%

Environment America rates her at 8%

Gosh, anyone the least bit concerned about global warming would be "a radical environmentalist" in this woman's opinion.

College students need to know about this voting record.

Labels: environmental issues, Roy Carter, Virginia Foxx

Video.

As endorsements go, this one's fairly significant in the 5th Dist.

P.S.
And by the way, recent polling shows the Carter-Foxx match-up the closest Congressional district race in the state of North Carolina, according to Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling.

Labels: Junior Johnson, Public Policy Polling, Roy Carter, Virginia Foxx

Coach Roy Carter has released his first TV ad. It doesn't name his opponent, Madam Foxx, but does offer an economic message.

Labels: Roy Carter, Virginia Foxx

A new poll of fifth district voters shows Roy Carter within striking distance of incumbent Virginia Foxx, despite being outspent seven to one so far. The survey of 846 likely voters was conducted by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh on July 23-24.

Foxx 51%
Carter 41%
Undecided 8%

The raw numbers alone tell only part of the story. Here's the analysis of the pollsters:

Virginia Foxx has only a 45% approval rating with voters in the district, well below the 50% threshold that is considered safe for an incumbent. It is a remarkably low 30% with the independent voters in the district, whose votes will be critical if Carter is to win this fall.

On the issue that matters most to voters in the district, Roy Carter has the edge over Virginia Foxx. 49% of respondents picked the economy as their biggest concern from a list of eight major issues, and among those folks Carter leads Foxx 48-45. If Carter is able to keep the campaign focused on the bread and butter issues that most affect the daily lives of people in the 5th district, he will have the upper hand.

There are indications that the Republican brand is damaged in the district. Although he received 66% of the vote in the district in both 2000 and 2004, President Bush's approval rating is just 34%. Just 20% of respondents think that the country is heading in the right direction under the current Republican administration.

Although trailing, Barack Obama and Bev Perdue are both outpacing recent Democratic performance in the district. Obama trails John McCain by 19 points, a significant improvement on the 33 point losses Al Gore and John Kerry sustained against George W. Bush. Perdue trails Pat McCrory by 8 points here, where Mike Easley lost to Richard Vinroot by 12 in 2000. It's also worth noting that Carter is polling at a higher level than both Perdue and Obama, an indication that he can differentiate himself from national Democrats, something that will be key to victory in this Republican leaning district.

If Roy Carter gets the funding he needs to run a strong media campaign that will complement his already strong grassroots backing, he has a genuine chance of beating Virginia Foxx this fall given the political climate and her lacking approval rating.

Labels: Roy Carter, Virginia Foxx

From the Roy Carter for Congress campaign:

WINSTON-SALEM, North Carolina – In recent months, gas prices have risen to all time highs and Virginia Foxx, North Carolina’s 5th district representative in the U.S. House, has gone on the defensive, placing the blame squarely on others for this looming crisis. As gas prices reached more than $4.00 per gallon in some areas this past Memorial Day weekend, Foxx is directly profiting from the pain that Americans feel at the pump.

According to personal financial disclosure records, Foxx has owned between $15,001 and $50,000 of stock in Chevron Corporation since 2004. While Americans struggle to meet their expenses in the face of runaway gas prices, Foxx stands to take part in Chevron’s windfall profits. Already a multi-millionaire (her 2006 disclosure lists her total net worth between $2.9 and $9.6 million); Roy Carter believes that his opponent should review her contradictory stance on gas prices in the face of her quest for personal wealth.

“Under normal circumstances, investing in an oil company is a person’s prerogative” said Roy Carter, Democratic candidate for the 5th District seat. “But when an elected official directly profits from the oil industry and then gets on her soapbox to protest against the unfairness of high gas prices, it just rings untrue and is remarkably hypocritical. Until she sells her shares in Chevron, I don’t think anyone should take my opponent seriously.”

In addition to personal gain from high gas prices, Foxx’s campaign has benefited from the oil, pharmaceutical, and health insurance industries. According the Federal Election Commission, since she began running for US Congress in 2004, Foxx has accepted over $200,000 from these three industries in PAC money alone, including funds from the Petroleum Marketers Association of America and Exxon Mobil.

Labels: oil industry, Roy Carter, Virginia Foxx

On the Democratic side, Obama won his match-up with Clinton in early voting, where some 3,185 votes were cast (including mail-in absentees), 1,974 of those for Obama to 1,174 for Clinton. That winning margin for Obama could not be overcome in precinct voting today, even though 11 of 20 precincts today went for Clinton.

Generally speaking, Clinton was strongest in the more rural parts of the county but not everywhere. For example, Elk and North Fork tipped to Obama. Watauga precinct (Foscoe and Valle Crucis) went for Obama. The three Boone precincts and New River 1 went for Obama. Blowing Rock and Blue Ridge turned in dead-even ties between Clinton and Obama.

Fifth Dist. congressional candidate Roy Carter carried Watauga by some 1,300 votes but appears to be slightly behind Diane Hamby district-wide (as of this writing).

U.S. senatorial candidate Jim Neal had an impressive showing in Watauga (2,291 votes), though he lost to Kay Hagan by a thousand votes in the county and to Hagan state-wide by a huge margin. Watauga was probably one of his best counties, perhaps because he made two visits here prior to the voting.

Likewise, Dan Besse came in second to Walter Dalton in Watauga. Good showing for Besse here, while he was losing the rest of the state.

On the Republican side, the most astounding local numbers were local dentist Jerry Butler's loss of his own county to Alexander Co. resident Dwight Shook in the State Senate Dist. 45 primary. Shades of Virginia Foxx! Butler can't carry his own county but wins the district and will be facing incumbent Senator Steve Goss this fall.

Oh, and Ron Paul didn't win the Republican presidential primary, though with 367 Watauga votes, he did out-poll "No Preference."

A total of 2,660 Republican ballots were cast, to 7,081 Democratic ballots. That may turn out to be the most significant bellwether of the night.

Labels: Barack Obama, Dan Besse, Dwight Shook, Hillary Clinton, Jerry Butler, Jim Neal, Ron Paul, Roy Carter, Virginia Foxx, Walter Dalton, Watauga County primary voting

Word from several Watauga County precincts this a.m. says that the Republicans are AWOL. No poll-greeters spotted for any Republican candidates, not even Paularoids (though, clearly, from the count of yard signs alone, Ron Paul is in the lead for the Republican presidential nomination. Apparently, true Paularoids are expecting a Big Uprising at the Republican National Convention this summer that will reject John McCain and sweep Ron Paul into the nomination. BTW, we want whatever it is they're smoking).

The most active Democratic campaigns locally -- from an unscientific count of poll-greeters working key precincts this morning -- would be the Bev Perdue campaign, Team Roy Carter, the Tim Futrelle committee, and both the Clinton and the Obama campaigns.

Turn-out has been steady though not in the overwhelming numbers we've seen reported from other parts of the state.

Labels: Barack Obama, Beverly Perdue, Hillary Clinton, Ron Paul, Roy Carter, Tim Futrelle, Watauga County primary voting